Fantasy Football Fix 16 August 2024
The five most important players for the Fantasy Premier League 2024/25, Gameweek 1
Welcome to our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) guide for Gameweek 1! Each Gameweek we highlight the best tips to help you make the best decisions for your FPL team. Each Gameweek we focus on the following categories:
- 2 attackers £8.5m or more
- 2 attackers under £8.5m
- 1 defender or goalkeeper
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FPL headliner – Alexander Isak (SOU)
Isak finished the 2023/24 season strongly with nine goals in Newcastle’s final ten games. Among forwards, only Mateta (11) scored more goals during that period. The Sweden international was the best among forwards in shots on goal (19), ‘big chances’ (18) and ‘expected goals’ (xG) (10.08). He was also second in ‘big chances’ created (four). As the image below from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, he averaged 7.4 FPL points per game in home matches last season.
Newcastle scored 26 goals in the final 10 game weeks of last season, only Chelsea (30) and Man. City (33) were more successful. The Magpies were top in big chances created (45) and second in expected goals (xG) (26.17). Their visitors Southampton conceded 63 goals in the Championship last season (14th) and also ranked 14th in goals conceded away from home (34). Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently predicts a score of 6.2 for Isak.
Highest FPL bonus: Mohamed Salah (ips)
Salah has only found the net three times in Liverpool’s last 10 games, but the Egyptian international’s fundamental numbers have nonetheless been excellent. He was second only to Palmer in shots (51 vs. 44) and ‘big chances’ (11 vs. 10), while no midfielder had more shots in the box (35). As the following image from our Elite XI: Team Reveal feature shows, the Egyptian is currently the most popular captain choice among top managers. The Elite managers have a combined 83 top 10,000 rankings.
Liverpool scored 21 goals in the final 10 gameweeks of the 2023/24 season (fifth place) and led the league in xG (27.12). Their opponents Ipswich had the seventh-best defence in the Championship with 57 goals conceded, but were 20th in goals conceded at home (32). Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently predicts a score of 7.0 for Salah.
Best FPL striker: Kai Havertz (WOL)
Now classified as a striker, Havertz scored five goals between Gameweeks 30 and 38 and also recorded five FPL assists. As the image below from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, no current FPL striker created more ‘big chances’ than his seven during the above period. He also ranked third for shots on target (15) and fourth for shots inside the box (27).
Arsenal scored 21 goals in the final 10 game weeks of last season (5th), the Gunners finished 4th in shots on goal (178) and 5th in xG (21.66). Their visitors Wolves conceded a whopping 21 goals in the same period (16th) and never kept a clean sheet. The Midlands side finished 15th in Expected Goals Against (xGC) (20.01). Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently predicts a score of 5.1 for Havertz.
Budget FPL attacker: Chris Wood (BOU)
Wood scored five goals for Forest in Gameweeks 30-38 last season, with only Isak, Haaland (nine each) and Mateta (11) scoring more. He had 14 ‘big chances’, with only Haaland (15) and Isak (18) scoring more. He ranked third for xG (6.35), with only Haaland (8.48) and Isak (10.08) scoring more. As the image below from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings feature shows, Forest are third in Attack Difficulty across the first three Gameweeks.
Forest scored 15 goals in the final 10 game weeks of last season (13th) and ranked eighth for big chances created (27) and xG (16.93). Their visitors Bournemouth conceded 14 goals in the same period (7th) and kept three clean sheets. The Cherries ranked eighth for xGC (14.40). Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently predicts a score of 4.4 for Wood.
Best FPL defender: Ben White (WOL)
White was the top-scoring defender of the 2023/24 season, scoring 182 FPL points with four goals, five assists and 18 clean sheets. Only Romero (five) scored more goals, while only seven defenders managed more assists than his five. He ranked sixth among defenders in expected assists (xA) (4.56).
Arsenal conceded just five goals and kept seven clean sheets in the final 10 game weeks of last season. The Gunners were only behind Man. City (8.89) in xGC (9.01). Their visitors Wolves scored just eight goals in the same period (19th), and only Luton (8.77) recorded a lower xG than their 10.26. Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently predicts a 50 percent chance of Arsenal conceding and a 5.2 points score for White.
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