ArkInvest analyst Tasha Keeney said on Monday that the EV giant Tesla Inc. TSL has a decisive advantage over autonomous vehicle operators such as Alphabet Inc. Waymo in launching and scaling robotaxi operations thanks to the company’s automotive manufacturing capabilities.
What happened: While Waymo is “slowly but surely” expanding its service across different regions, it is still experiencing longer wait times due to its small fleet and other technical issues, Keeney wrote on X on Monday, reflecting on her ride in a Waymo car in Los Angeles.
Tesla could take less time than its competitors to launch its robotaxi network, Keeney said, because of the company’s vertically integrated approach. With customer participation, Tesla could easily expand its robotaxi network using its existing fleet, she added.
In addition, Tesla’s cheapest electric vehicle, the Model 3, costs just $40,000, according to Keeney. Waymo’s vehicles, on the other hand, are rumored to cost over $100,000.
“While Waymo’s actual costs could be lower and the Gen 6 platform likely represents some improvement over current costs, a wholly owned automotive subsidiary is likely to be a critical advantage when considering the cost of integrating the sensor unit alone,” Keeney said.
While high vehicle costs could hurt capital investment and initial profitability, high utilization should lower cost per mile in the long run, the analyst said.
Musk reacts: “If Elon’s predictions are correct, we may soon have the chance to compare these services directly – he firmly believes Tesla could offer a fully autonomous driving experience by the end of next year,” Keeney concluded on Monday.
Tesla boss Elon Musk responded to the analyst, writing, “The trend is promising.” The CEO may have been referring to the proliferation of autonomous vehicles.
Why it is important: Tesla is currently focusing heavily on the autonomy of its vehicles and is trying to improve its driver assistance software for fully autonomous driving (FSD) so that the vehicles can drive without human intervention. However, active supervision by the driver is currently required.
The company is also expected to unveil its dedicated robotaxi product on October 10.
Musk remains optimistic that Tesla will eventually be truly autonomous, comparing self-driving cars to elevators that transport passengers to their destinations.
“Even if I were abducted by aliens tomorrow, Tesla will solve the problem of autonomy, maybe a little slower, but it would at least solve the problem of autonomy for vehicles,” Musk said during Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call. “If someone doesn’t believe Tesla is going to solve the problem of autonomy, I don’t think they should invest in the company.”
Musk reiterated this view last month.
Waymo, meanwhile, unveiled its sixth-generation hardware on Monday, including a new sensor suite to cut costs while delivering more performance, even in winter. Parent company Alphabet last month committed to a new $5 billion, multi-year investment in Waymo to back the company.
The company now operates its autonomous vehicles in several cities, including San Francisco, and wants to expand operations to other cities, including Austin.
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