Contract disputes with some of the NFL’s best players and their teams are becoming a major issue. How do we know when to draft them in fantasy football?
Oh yeah, their real-life teams matter too. The NFL regular season starts in just over two weeks, and a trio of great receivers haven’t even practiced yet as they await new contracts. How will each situation resolve? Let’s take a guess at the four major standoffs that involve NFL offensive stars:
Let’s start with Prescott, although he’s neither holding out nor holding out. It’s not really a controversial stalemate. He’ll be there in Week 1 after practicing all offseason. But his looming contract situation will be a season-long story if the Cowboys don’t resolve it. It also affects the next player on this list.
Prescott will be a free agent next offseason. You may be a football fan who thinks Prescott isn’t very good, but that would be wrong. Prescott was almost named NFL MVP last season. He has a career passer rating of 99, the fifth-best in NFL history. His career completion percentage of 67% is the fourth-best all-time. The Cowboys are 73-41 when he competes in the regular season. Whether he likes it or not, he gets paid.
It looks like the Cowboys are the team paying him. Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones told Yahoo Sports’ Jori Epstein that the Cowboys hope “it gets done before the season starts.” Prescott was more diplomatic, telling Epstein that if the Cowboys want to move on, “it’s a deal” and regarding the contract, “Everything has to be in order from my side as well.” It seems like this is moving along at a positive pace. It’s going to be expensive, but are the Cowboys really letting their QB go after this season?
Forecast: Prescott signs before the season for a record sum
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
There hasn’t been much positive news regarding Lamb’s contract negotiations. The Dallas Morning News reported that the Cowboys’ contract offers didn’t even reach $33 million. Justin Jefferson set the bar at $35 million per season with his deal with the Minnesota Vikings, and the top receivers awaiting new contracts are well aware of that.
Lamb is coming off a monster season with 1,749 yards, which puts him on par with Jefferson, or close to it. Lamb hasn’t practiced as he awaits a new contract. Not only do the Cowboys have quarterback Dak Prescott and Lamb to worry about, but pass rusher Micah Parsons is also set to get a big contract extension soon (Parsons has been working out as usual). According to Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson, both believe they’re worthy of being the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback. Can the Cowboys really afford to keep all three superstars? That’s going to be very difficult. It’s entirely possible one will have to go, and it’s even harder to imagine the Cowboys getting the huge contracts for Prescott and Lamb before Week 1. If the Cowboys are prioritizing quarterback and pass rusher over receiver, where does that leave Lamb? Dallas seems to be playing a bit of a waiting game with Lamb. Given that Lamb is already holding out, the two teams appear to be relatively far apart, and the Cowboys are in a bind with three huge contract extensions pending, this seems like a situation that could impact Lamb’s status at the start of the regular season.
Forecast: Lamb will miss a regular season game, like Chiefs defensive end Chris Jones did last season, and is waiting for his new contract
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase
Like CeeDee Lamb, Chase can point to a pretty simple precedent. Justin Jefferson, his old college teammate, was getting paid $35 million per season. That’s what elite receivers want now.
Chase may not be quite as good as Jefferson, who has broken numerous records with his blazing start to his career, but it’s close. The Bengals know what Chase deserves and they’ve had time to prepare for it, so it’s confusing why a deal hasn’t been done yet. And it’s getting more complicated. Chase is holding back (attending meetings but not working out), and Bengals owner Mike Brown has said he’d prefer to negotiate such a deal in the offseason. That won’t be acceptable to Chase.
Former Bengals receiver Chad Johnson jumped into the fray. On ESPN’s Adam Schefter’s podcast, he said he believes the Chase deal will “definitely” be done before the season starts and sometime next week. That made some headlines, although Johnson apparently had no inside information. Everyone is just waiting for a breakthrough in the stalemate. Johnson was asked if he thought Chase would play in Week 1 if a deal didn’t happen, and he replied, “Absolutely not, he’s not going to step on the field.”
It shouldn’t be too complicated. The Bengals knew this was coming and they know the market for a receiver with Chase’s skills. It’s probably dragged on too long already.
Forecast: Chase closes a deal just days before the season opener
The Pittsburgh Steelers should be upset. On August 13, there was a report that the Steelers and 49ers had agreed to the framework of a deal and all San Francisco had to do was sign. And the days went by. The Aiyuk drama had been brewing for months. The 49ers are still negotiating with Aiyuk and trying to work out a long-term deal. Or they’re figuring out how to offload Aiyuk without taking a step backwards this season. After all, they’re one of the favorites for the Super Bowl, but that’s with Aiyuk on the roster. Aiyuk led them with 1,342 yards last season and it would be difficult to replace him in late August. They wouldn’t be the same team without Aiyuk.
It appears the 49ers have begun negotiations in earnest after the market was set by the Steelers and perhaps others like the Patriots, who were allowed to talk to Aiyuk about the contract when he sought a trade. The 49ers don’t want to be without Aiyuk, and while it’s hard to figure out how to pay all of their stars — quarterback Brock Purdy is eligible to sign a contract extension next offseason — they clearly want to make it happen.
Forecast: Aiyuk and 49ers agree to a long-term contract before the season
