The USDCAD was little changed following the Canadian employment report. Although employment change fell by -2.8 thousand versus the estimate of +22.5, full-time jobs rose by 61.6 thousand. Part-time jobs fell by -64.4 thousand, offsetting these gains. Stronger full-time jobs are better than declines in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate also remained stable at 6.4% versus the estimate of 6.5%.
Looking at the hourly chart, price has actually broken below its 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and 61.8% of the upside from the July low at 1.37247 in the late Asian/early European session today, but momentum has been limited and price is back above that support target. To reinforce the bearish bias, one must break below – and stay below – that level, with the 100-day MA at 1.36905 being the next key target.
On the upside, the 50% midpoint of the same move higher held resistance yesterday and remains so in trading today. A move above this would see traders target the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.37923 and then the 1.3803-09 area.
For the week, Monday’s high of 1.39458 marked a new high since October 2022, but fell short of the 2022 peak of 1.39770 before trending sharply lower again.
For more on USDCAD movement this week, check out yesterday’s video: