We’re coming off a season in which Puka Nacua and Nico Collins both delivered WR1-level performances at outrageously modest draft prices, so the viability of fantasy football dark horses at the position isn’t really an open question.
If you’re still not convinced on this topic…well, you may need to retake some lower-level courses at Fantasy U.
Just like last season, this year’s breakout receivers will likely be a group of up-and-coming players under 25 who – in addition to their obvious talent – have strong statistical indicators that suggest serious potential. Some of the top prospects will also clearly see more usage, like this third-year sprinter…
One of the best ideas last year was a long throw to Shaheed. These throws often ended like this:
Shaheed reached the end zone five times on attempts over 20 yards in 2023 and caught 12 of his 21 chances. His passer rating on long throws was 121.5, which was naturally among the highest in the NFL. This year, under new OC Klint Kubiak (previously the Niners’ passing game coordinator), we can reasonably expect the usual long throws to Shaheed, along with more quick YAC opportunities.
Let’s remember that the only notable change New Orleans made at receiver in the offseason was the release of Michael Thomas. This team is otherwise running back with Chris Olave, Shaheed, Alvin Kamara and AT Perry at the top of the receiver hierarchy. No one should be surprised if Shaheed reaches triple-digit targets and over 1,000 yards next season. He was an unfair offensive weapon of the moment he first came on the field for the Saints.
If you gave the average NFL fan a hundred guesses, it’s pretty unlikely that he could name the guy who had the best pass rating among all receivers when targeted. Shakir caught 39 of his 45 chances for 611 yards and two scores (and zero interceptions), resulting in an incredible 133.6 rating when targeted. He had a relatively low ADOT (8.6) and a relatively high average yards per reception (15.7), so it’s probably safe to assume he was among the NFL leaders in YAC.
Here is a ridiculous example of Shakir’s ability to catch the ball after catching it:
After the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason, Buffalo’s offense still has over 200 targets to choose from. many of that should go to Shakir. He has already established himself as one of the game’s most efficient and effective receivers and now faces a potentially significant increase in workload. Shakir should be a priority in the mid- to late-draft period.
Even for a position that requires extreme athleticism, Thomas is like a lab-grown mutant. He is 6’4″ tall, has 4’3″ speed, a 38.5″ vertical leap and all these features jump out at you.
As we have already discussed here, the elite attributes that Thomas possesses correspond perfect with things that A) the Jaguars desperately need and B) Trevor Lawrence has always done well. Thomas was a proven big-play machine at LSU, averaging 17.3 yards per catch as a junior while scoring 17 touchdowns, earning him his first-round draft status. If he maxes out as a rookie, he could lead all first-year receivers in touchdowns.
Let’s try to imagine a version of the Chiefs offense where long and medium pass attempts are actually caught:
Last season, Patrick Mahomes completed only 18 of 63 attempts, threw one touchdown pass and intercepted six balls over 20 yards. It goes without saying that the best QB in the world is not really bad in completing long throws. The big problem in 2023 was the criminal gallery of receivers that KC sent out, so it was no big surprise that the Chiefs used their first-round pick on an incredibly fast wideout (4.21 speed) with a multi-year history of excellent college performance.
We’re not making any guarantees on Worthy, but there’s simply no doubt that he has a skill set we haven’t seen in KC recently and that the team desperately needs. This is the type of player that can change the playing field for any of the Chiefs’ veteran players. If Worthy enters Mahomes’ circle of trust, he certainly has a shot at fantasy WR2 status.
Just to be clear, we’re not promising you there will be another Puka in the rookie class this year, because there’s never been anything like this guy’s 2023 season before.
But if we’re simply looking for second- and third-day receivers with clear chances for immediate fantasy relevance, Burton is clearly one of the strongest candidates. He wasn’t necessarily a volume receiver last year at Alabama, but he made the most of his opportunities, averaging 20.5 yards per catch and making eight house calls on 39 receptions. Burton has great hands and obvious YAC skills:
The rookie steps into the role of third receiver in a top-tier passing offense and should find himself in favorable coverage situations alongside Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Burton has a clear path to over 90 targets, a volume that would make him all but assured of weekly WR3/Flex status.
