Of course, you’d think the majority of people would only want the No. 1 pick in their fantasy football drafts, but it’s all contextual — some might even prefer the 12th pick depending on the season. Fantasy analysts Scott Pianowski and Matt Harmon discuss the best way to start a draft in 2024, with one side choosing the top-4 pick, the other choosing picks 5-8.
Arguments for a 1-4 selection
The first point I want to make is that draft slots don’t have to be stressful. Any draft slot – any draft strategy – can be a winner if you select the right players. Don’t drive yourself crazy before your season even starts.
But if I have to choose my own draft slot, that’s a different story. I’ll take something from the top 4, please.
Maybe it sounds counterintuitive, but the fourth pick is probably my general preference. Then I look at anyone from that Fab Four – Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall or Ja’Marr Chase – and my second-round pick isn’t far from the middle. My best drafts tend to come when I’m not in the game on either side, which allows me to stay more in the feel of the draft.
I know I’m not alone in my thought of assembling the roster in the early rounds – I’ll be looking for an anchor back and several hard-hitting receivers with my first few picks. Tight end is somewhat of a priority, but probably not in the first four rounds. And quarterback is so heavily featured this year, I’ll address that when I get to it.
Make sure you give Hall a fair chance. He spread his wings in the second half of last year and the Jets may have the best roster in the AFC. The offensive line is a monster. If Aaron Rodgers is just an average quarterback, the Jets will make the playoffs. If Rodgers actually has something going for him, this team could fly to the moon.
Lamb and Chase probably speak for themselves – Lamb made a splash in the second half of football last year and Chase always looked like the type of player who was going to have a 20-touchdown season sooner or later. I’ll put them one step above Tyreek Hill (a god, but age should be considered) and Justin Jefferson (probably QB-proof, but I’d like to see how that pans out). And McCaffrey’s versatility and touchdown rate remain nice things, even if the Niners don’t have the usual steamroller group on the offensive line.
Some leagues allow their managers to set the priority of their draft slots. These are my top four preferred slots: 4-3-2-1. The talent pool tends to get shallower in the second and third rounds, but that’s generally not the case in the first round, where an early pick is usually beneficial.
Don’t agree? We have a game for that. Build your masterpiece, paint your Mona Lisa. — Scott Pianoski
Arguments for a 5-8 selection
The good news for drafters is that I don’t see many obvious dark spots or players to avoid in the first round of the draft this fantasy football season. However, one area I particularly liked targeting is the middle of Round 1 between picks 5-8.
In this section you’ll find the ADPs of Bijan Robinson and, if all goes well, the aforementioned Hall, both of whom I consider to be foundational players at the running back position. Robinson and Hall were top-10 scorers last season and will now get a boost in their ecosystem thanks to quarterback reinforcements. In Robinson’s case, a change in coaching staff should also help boost Atlanta’s overall offensive efficiency.
I want to come out of the first three rounds with a heavyweight running back. If you somehow miss out on both of those backs in picks 5-8, you can still get the job done. You need to select a high-end WR1 producer with excellent ceiling/floor projection in Round 1, such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, and then turn to the Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry class in Round 2. These players are not at the same ideal point in their careers as Robinson and Hall, but that’s why they’re a gamble in the second round.
If you’re looking for younger players, you can add Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane. They don’t have a risk-free profile either, but we know the tangible potential in scoring goals.
I typically want to have a running back spot filled in Round 2 because the third round offers so many strong wide receiver bets. My preferred team builds are those where I have two receivers and a running back locked in by the end of the third round. As my colleague Scott Pianowski drilled into me last year, you want to “get receivers that can start themselves.” If you don’t have two in Round 3, I think you’re going to be in trouble in that pursuit.
Once Round 4 starts, I usually open up the possibilities on the board. There are undoubtedly more interesting wide receiver picks, and depending on the league, you can even get a Josh Jacobs or Rachaad White. At the same time, I don’t rule out considering a onesie position if an elite TE1 is still there or I just think Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes are better than the guys around him. — Matt Harmon
