Welcome to the Buy, Sell or Hold series, where each week I focus on one position to analyze four players and consider what we should do with them. This week, it’s running backs again.
Breece Hall, RB NYJ – Hold
After his ACL tear, some worried about what Hall would do in his second year in the NFL after showing a lot of potential as a rookie. He eased those worries by scoring 17.1 PPR points per game in 2023 and averaging 20 PPR points per game in his final 13 games after the Jets publicly announced he would start the season four games in. Even more impressive, this was all done without Aaron Rodgers, who missed four snaps into the season. As things stand, Rodgers is expected to be fully healthy for the 2024 season, and the Jets have signed Braelon Allen, who is supposed to be Hall’s handcuffs but won’t take anything away from him. How high can Hall’s cap be and should we buy?
The move – Hall is rightfully ranked and valued everywhere as one of the top three dynasty running backs. He is one of the best receiving running backs in the entire league, an explosive runner, and is expected to have a top-notch workload. Trying to sign Hall is extremely difficult. Anyone who has him on their roster knows what they have and won’t let him go for more than full price. Additionally, trading Hall isn’t wise either. Running backs like Hall are rare these days. Just keep him and reap the rewards.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET – Possible Purchase
Many were surprised when the Lions selected Gibbs 12th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, but Gibbs proved all doubters wrong as a rookie. He finished eighth among running backs with 16.1 PPR PPG, although David Montgomery himself only managed 14.8 PPR PPG. Gibbs, who distinguished himself as a top-notch pass catcher when he entered the NFL, was even better as a runner. He was third in breakaway run percentage, 16th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in forced missed tackles among all running backs. Expectations are pretty high for Gibbs entering his second season, but he is battling a hamstring injury. Can he improve in his second year?
The move – Gibbs is one of the best young running backs in the NFL. Despite sharing a backfield with David Montgomery, Gibbs could be one of the best fantasy running backs. However, his injury is a concern for some this season. In full-season drafts, his ADP has dropped since his injury and it’s a good idea to see if that discount is available at dynasty level. Knock on Gibbs’ manager’s door to see what the price is. I’d look to out-sell Gibbs by adding Saquon Barkley, Isaiah Pacheco or Kenneth Walker.
Jaylen Warren, RB PIT – Possible Purchase
In 2023, Warren continued to impress after bursting onto the scene as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2022. He averaged 11.6 PPR PPG while splitting with Najee Harris, was third in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in missed forced tackles. This offseason has brought a lot of changes to the Steelers and the situation surrounding Warren. They have new quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, Diontae Johnson is no longer with the team, and Arthur Smith is the new offensive coordinator. Additionally, Warren injured his hamstring and is questionable if he will play in the first week of the season. Everyone has been excited for Warren from the moment he stepped on the field and hoping for his breakout moment. Will he come this year?
The move – Like Jahymr Gibbs, I want to use Jaylen Warren’s injury as a potential buying window. Warren has proven to be a very talented and dynamic running back in his two years in the NFL. Despite my anger at Arthur Smith, Warren can still be a valuable producer in his offense alongside Najee Harris. With Warren, reducing players is the best course of action. Try sending Tony Pollard or D’Andre Swift for Warren and gaining an additional player.
Nick Chubb, RB CLE – League dependent
IIt’s been a disappointing season for Chubb in 2023 after he suffered a multi-ligament injury in his knee in the second game of the season. Chubb has long been considered one of the NFL’s best running backs and has been a consistent RB1 in fantasy. From 2019-2022, Chubb averaged no less than 15.4 PPR PPG each season and has never had fewer than five yards per carry in any year of his career. Chubb has impressed with his injury rehab this offseason, but he is still expected to miss some of the season. Now we have to wonder when Chubb will return from his injury and how much he will actually contribute once he returns.
The move – Going into the offseason, Chubb’s price had dropped to a point where he was a pretty good buy despite his injury. But all it took was one video of Chubb lifting an absurdly high amount of weight for people to come back to him. Because of this, Chubb’s price will vary from league to league. Anything less than a second-round rookie pick or equivalent is a win. Plus, since he’ll start the season on the physically unable to perform list, it’s worth waiting until the season starts to see if his price drops again.
This will be the last Buy, Sell, or Hold article of the summer, but I’m not going anywhere. Look for my bi-monthly Traversing the Trade Finder articles coming soon!
A fantasy football fan for 20 years and a converted redraft player who is now in love with the dynasty, Wyatt’s greatest passions are drafting the best players available, playing in unique leagues, the smell of a fresh trade in the morning, and the sweet taste of victory.
