Due to the sheer lack of compelling alternatives, Deadpool & Wolverine is expected to top the box office charts in its sixth weekend of release.
Several films are opening nationally — including the Dennis Quaid-directed biopic “Reagan” and Sony and Blumhouse’s AI horror fable “Afraid” — but none of them are expected to enter the Labor Day weekend box office charts. These newcomers are aiming for low single-digit box office and will be lucky if they make the top five, which should be filled with holdovers like “Alien: Romulus” and the romantic drama “It Ends With Us.”
In one of the weakest weekends of the year, Disney’s Marvel sequel “Deadpool & Wolverine” is expected to dominate the entire holiday season with $12-13 million. The R-rated film, starring Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, has been number one for four of the last five weekends. With $577 million in North America and $1.21 billion worldwide, it is the second highest-grossing film of the year.
Among new releases, “Reagan” could lead the pack with $5 million to $7 million over the four days. Sean McNamara (“Soul Surfer”) directed the $25 million film, which is based on Paul Kengor’s 2006 book “The Crusader: Ronald Reagan and the Fall of Communism.” Using a conversation between former KGB agent Viktor Petrovich (Jon Voight) and aspiring Russian politician Andrei Novikov (Alexey Sparrow), the film traces the life and times of Ronald Reagan from his childhood through his years as President of the United States. ShowBiz Direct, an independent distributor, is releasing the film in theaters.
“Afraid” is aiming for a similar $5 million to $7 million Friday-Monday opening. The film, starring John Cho and Katherine Waterston, is about a family selected to test a revolutionary smart home AI. But the new device becomes self-aware and a little too intertwined with their lives. Blumhouse tends to keep costs low, so “Afraid” has a tight $12 million production budget.
From there, the box office charts somehow only get bleaker. Three films – Lionsgate’s R-rated crime thriller “1992,” starring Tyrese Gibson and Scott Eastwood, Bleecker Street sci-fi thriller “Slingshot” and Roadside’s human trafficking drama “City of Dreams” – will each gross $2.5 million or less between Friday and holiday Monday.
“1992” is about a shopkeeper who must save his son from an angry mob during the Los Angeles uprising following the verdict in the Rodney King case. “Slingshot” stars Casey Affleck as an astronaut who struggles to keep his grip on reality aboard a potentially fatally failed mission to Saturn’s moon Titan. “City of Dreams” is about a young Mexican farmer who travels to LA with the promise of attending a soccer camp, only to find that he has been sold to a sweatshop.
In the case of “City of Dreams,” about 50 percent of the projected ticket sales will not be revenue in the traditional sense. In an unusual move, the filmmakers and John Devaney, founder of United Capital and Manor House Films, are giving away $1 million worth of free tickets. Their donations went to “individuals and groups, including anti-human trafficking organizations, survivors, schools, churches, communities and people who might not otherwise be able to afford the film,” according to a press release.
The film’s writer, director and producer Mohit Ramchandani said these free screenings would help “shine the spotlight on some of the world’s most vulnerable people.”
“Today, 12 million children are victims of modern slavery,” he said in a statement. “In our film, we tell the story of one of these children who had the courage to fight back.”
