Blackwell guidance is key for Nvidia and the stock market, whales sell Bitcoin – Russia seeks to compete – Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)

To gain an advantage, here’s what you need to know today.

Blackwell guidance is the key

Click here for an enlarged overview of NVIDIA Corp NVDA.

Please note the following:

• This article is about the big picture, not a single stock. The NVDA stock chart is used for illustration purposes.
• In the history of the stock market, there has rarely been a stock like NVDA. Nvidia’s earnings will determine the course of the stock market in the near future.
• The chart shows that NVDA stock made a major rally after hitting the lower boundary of the support zone.
• The chart shows that NVDA stock has been consolidating over the past few days.
• The chart shows that consolidation has been at an average level, suggesting that there is not much conviction ahead of the earnings announcement.
• The options market indicates a buying bias.
• The Arora Report’s proprietary VUD indicator measures net supply and demand in real-time. In terms of returns, the VUD indicator for NVDA is mixed.
• The RSI in the chart shows that NVDA stock can easily fluctuate in either direction.
• The Momo crowd is aggressively buying NVDA shares. The Momo crowd believes NVDA will rise to $150 after the earnings announcement.
• Institutions and hedge funds continue to reduce NVDA in advance of earnings announcements. They don’t reduce it because they have a negative NVDA value. They reduce it because they know earnings announcements are a risk event. Smart money tends to reduce risk in advance of events. In contrast, the Momo crowd buys in advance of events because they are fixated on the potential gains and ignore the risks.
• As we’ve told you, whisper numbers for Nvidia earnings continue to rise. The whisper numbers are above consensus.
• Stock prices move based on the difference between reported numbers and whisper numbers. Whisper numbers are the numbers that analysts share privately with only their best clients. Whisper numbers from the same analysts are often very different from the numbers they release to the public. Whisper numbers are a technique used by analysts to drum up deals.
• We’ve already told you that Nvidia expects significant Blackwell sales this year. Blackwell is Nvidia’s next-generation system.
  • The decline in NVDA stock from its highs shown in the chart was largely due to the possible delay in Blackwell deliveries.
  • The rise in NVDA stock shown in the chart is partly due to analysts’ defense of Nvidia and the growing consensus that the delay is only four to six weeks.
• According to the Arora Report’s analysis, what happens to NVDA stock and the stock market will depend largely on Nvidia’s forecast for Blackwell deliveries.
• The options market is suggesting a move of about 10% in either direction following Nvidia’s earnings, compared to the previous 9%. Such a move would represent about $300 billion in value creation or destruction.

The Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In early trading, money flows in NVDA are neutral, Apple Inc AAPL, Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon, Alphabet Inc. Class C GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc METAAnd Microsoft Corp MSFT.

In early trading, cash flows are negative in Tesla Inc TSL.

In early trading, cash flows are negative in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY And Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.

Momo Crowd and Smart Money in Stocks

Investors can gain an advantage by knowing the money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can gain a greater advantage by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust GLDThe most popular ETF for silver is iShares Gold Trust SLVThe most popular ETF for oil is US Oil ETF USO.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin BTC/USD has experienced a significant sell-off as Bitcoin whales dump Bitcoin to retail investors. As is their pattern, Bitcoin whales tend to sell Bitcoin into the strength created by retail investor buying.

There are three other developments that have a negative impact on Bitcoin.

• Telegram is a messaging app popular among Bitcoin users. French authorities have arrested Pavel Durov, the Russian-born founder of Telegram. France is investigating criminal activity on the app.
• A Bitcoin competitor, Toncoin, has crashed. The reason for Toncoin’s decline is that Toncoin is linked to Telegram.
• The third reason is a leak that Russia is preparing to set up crypto exchanges. Russia’s intention is to use Bitcoin to circumvent US sanctions.

Both Trump and Harris are showing enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies to win votes from voters who only care about a particular issue – they are crypto bulls. In the Arora Report analysis, the concern is that the new president will not support cryptocurrencies after his election due to developments in Russia.

Protective tape and what to do now

It is important for investors to look forward and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long-term, existing positions. Depending on individual risk preference, consider a protective band of cash or Treasuries or short-term tactical trades, as well as short- to medium-term hedges and short-term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself while participating in the upside.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high protection band is for older or conservative people. The low protection band is for younger or aggressive people. If you do not hedge, the total amount of cash should be higher than above, but significantly lower than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very optimistic and would imply a full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very pessimistic and would imply a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

Remember that you cannot take advantage of new opportunities if you do not have enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for equity (non-ETF) positions; consider using wider stops for remaining quantities and also allow more slack for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are those that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 portfolio

The probability-based and inflation-adjusted risk-return trade-off does not currently support a long-dated strategic bond allocation.

Those who want to stick to the traditional allocation of 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds should focus only on high-quality bonds and bonds with a maturity of five years or less. Those who want to refine their investment should currently use bond ETFs as a tactical rather than a strategic position.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate predictions. The Arora Report has correctly predicted before anyone else the great rise in artificial intelligence, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus decline in 2020, the DJIA rising to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Click here to sign up free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.