Bruins
“I understand that the cap is being raised and where it will be in a few years.”
As the Bruins and Jeremy Swayman continue to try to close the gap in contract negotiations, one thing has become clear.
The 25-year-old goalkeeper is well aware of his value and he is not necessarily interested in taking a hometown discount.
The raise Swayman is expected to get from his contract remains the most questionable aspect of his final deal with the Bruins. Swayman is expected to secure a nice raise over the $3.475 million he made last season – but how much is he really expecting?
While both Swayman and Boston’s leadership have largely said the right things in negotiating a contract this summer, Swayman’s approach in these negotiations may be about more than just his rising value after a dominant playoff series.
According to his recent comments on the Shut Up Marc Podcast, Swayman’s focus on the rising NHL salary cap and the upturn in the goalie market could have a big impact on what kind of payout he envisions for the future.
When asked how he is negotiating what is likely to be the first long-term contract of his professional career, Swayman spoke openly about the changes in his mindset since the controversial arbitration with Boston last summer.
“If you asked me the same question a year ago, I would have answered honestly,” Swayman told host Marc Lewis. “And I would say, ‘That’s scary. There’s a lot of resentment towards the people who want you to succeed.’ And when you’re not compensated for your endless efforts and doing what you do best, it’s a nerve-wracking feeling because it’s your family you’re fighting for.”
“The answer I’ll give you this year is that I’ve educated myself and I understand the business side of it all. It’s given me a whole new way of thinking about the business and how to respond to it. I understand that the cap is going up and where it’s going to be in a few years. I understand my peers and that I can’t ruin the goalie market for people who will be in my shoes in the future.”
Considering a recent rumor from WEEI’s Rich Keefe that Swayman is looking to make $10 million annually on his new contract, one has to wonder if Swayman and his camp are fully banking on a rising salary cap – and his own high cap number – to become one of the highest-paid goalies in the league.
There are currently only four active goalies whose annual salary cap is above $6.4 million next season. The only active goalie with a $10 million salary is Sergei Bobrovsky of Florida.
Next are Andrei Vasilevskiy of Tampa with $9.5 million, Connor Hellebuyck of Winnipeg with $8.5 million and Ilya Sorokin of the Islanders with $8.25 million.
Three of these four goalies have at least one Vezina Trophy on their resume, in addition to three Stanley Cup titles.
Swayman’s comment that he does not want to ruin the goalie market is quite valid, as his new contract may lay the foundation for future salary increases for other top young goalies in the league, such as Igor Shesterkin and Jake Oettinger of the Rangers.
Because NHL players have fully repaid their escrow debts accumulated during the COVID-affected 2019-20 season, the league’s salary cap is also expected to exceed the $4.5 million increase announced for the 2024-25 season.
Longtime NHL agent Allan Walsh, co-head of Octagon Hockey, explained in an interview with Sportico that the league’s salary cap could rise from $88 million in the 2024-25 season to $101 million in the 2027-28 season.
With more financial flexibility on the horizon, the best goalies could easily command $9-10 million per season – and already lavish contracts like David Pastrnak’s ($11.25 million AAV) should also pay off over time.
But even if Swayman believes a double-digit paycheck will be the norm in a few years, the Bruins may not necessarily be willing to meet that demand at this stage of his promising NHL career.
Swayman’s stock is at an all-time high this offseason, thanks in large part to his performance during Boston’s recent postseason run. In 12 games with the Bruins against Toronto and Florida, he posted a .933 save percentage.
With 13.3 goals saved above expected, he led all other goaltenders during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (according to MoneyPuck), despite only appearing in two rounds total.
Still, a strong finish to the 2023-24 season doesn’t mean the Bruins are ready and willing to pay him more than $10 million a year – even if he still has more room for development as the No. 1 goalie in the NHL.
Although Swayman’s development into one of the league’s most promising goalies has played a key role in Boston’s stellar regular-season record over the past few years, the Bruins are understandably hesitant to pay such a generous salary to a goalie who is expected to take the reins as the undisputed No. 1 goalie for the first time in his NHL career.
Following the transfer of Linus Ullmark in June, the stage is set for Swayman to take the lion’s share of goal duties this season, but his workload remains questionable considering his career high is just 44 games played – set last season.
Despite his excellent playoff run, Swayman’s best finish in the Vezina Trophy voting is seventh overall. Sorokin – a potential comparison player with a payout of $8.25 million – appeared in 56 games last season and was a finalist for the Vezina.
The Bruins may have a lot of faith in Swayman and hope his playoff performance is a sign of things to come. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Bruins are willing to pay $9-10 million per season based on future projections alone.
“Jeremy has only played 44 games in a regular season, which is still significant,” Bruins president Cam Neely acknowledged last week on WZLX’s “The Rich Shertenlieb Show.” “But it’s not 60 or 65 (games). And Linus, you know, those two certainly helped us set the records that we’ve set over the last few years. They’re both great goalies.”
“Jeremy is a focused and determined guy and has a lot of confidence. And he’s obviously his age, so we thought we’d go with Jeremy.”
The Bruins could be excited to work with Swayman for the foreseeable future, especially since he is far from reaching his ceiling at this stage of his career.
However, a long-term contract worth $7.5 to $8.5 million per year might be a more acceptable price for all parties.
While the Bruins may have doubts about whether Swayman can handle the pressures of being the No. 1 goalie, it is a significant deal that re-sets the floor for the goalie market, gives a 25-year-old goalie a significant raise, and also offers the chance to age well over time if Swayman continues to be successful and gains more playing time.
For all the fuss and speculation that contract negotiations understandably bring, one thing has remained clear throughout the process: Swayman wants to complete his ascent to become one of the NHL’s best goalies in a black and gold jersey.
“I don’t think 10-year-old Jeremy Swayman would have thought in a million years that he would be in this position and in this city, and the gratitude I feel in this situation completely overshadows the negative side of it all,” Swayman told Lewis. “I couldn’t be happier to be in this situation. At the end of the day, I’m holding pucks for the Boston Bruins.”
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