US Census shows: Centenarians will increase sharply by 2054
Projections by the US Census Bureau predict that the number of centenarians will quadruple – from 101,000 in 2024 to around 422,000 in 2054.
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Tennessee’s population is expected to grow to nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville is expected to have 7.94 million residents in 2040 — a 13% increase from the population of 7.05 million in 2022, the last time data was available.
Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee’s population is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.82%, an increase of about 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than between 2010 and 2020. This will be followed by a period of steady but lower population increases that is expected to continue until 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.
“At the state level, population growth in the 2020s will feel similar to the gains over the past decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boomer generation reaches the later stages of life, increasing numbers of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population growth.”
According to a university study, older adults are expected to experience the largest population growth of any age group. The Volunteer State is also expected to become more racially and ethnically diverse.
Here’s how else Tennessee will grow at the local and state levels.
Which cities in Tennessee have grown the most? See how the population has changed according to the US Census
A growing population of older adults
By 2040, nearly 20% of the state’s population is expected to be 65 years of age and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between the ages of 65 and 74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, followed by people between the ages of 75 and 84 (506,795), and finally people 85 and older (204,895).
According to Harris, the growing number of older people will not only impact the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other forms of personal care over the decades.
Growth is also expected in the under-65 age group, but at a much lower rate. Growth of 11% is expected for the population aged between 25 and 52, while growth of only 2% is expected for those under 20.
A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee
More than half of the state’s projected population growth is accounted for by Hispanics, blacks or African Americans, or people of other or multiple races.
The largest increase will be among Hispanics, whose numbers will rise from about 450,000 in 2022 to 754,000 over the next 20 years—an increase of 6.4%. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee’s residents. The Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will experience a similar increase, growing from 307,000 to 470,000 by 2040.
While Tennessee’s black and white populations are also expected to grow, the state’s white and black population is expected to decline, with the black population declining from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population declining from 73% to 69% by 2040.
How will the population of the Nashville area change compared to other cities in Tennessee?
The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to have a population growth of 28% by 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.
The Knoxville metropolitan area’s population is expected to increase by 11% by 2040, bringing the total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga metropolitan area’s population is expected to increase by 13% by 2040, bringing the total population to 474,768. The Memphis metropolitan area’s population is expected to decrease by 3.4%, bringing the total population to 986,741 by 2040.
methodology
The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were performed at the county level for each combination of race, sex, and age, using both internal data and data from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.
To determine the population of each area by race, sex and age for each year, information on birth rates, death rates and net migration was considered.
For more information on the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.
Diana Leyva covers breaking news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Reach her at [email protected] or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana.