September is just days away and Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman is still a restricted free agent. Time to panic?
NO.
These negotiations don’t always move quickly. Bruins president Cam Neely gave an update last week when asked about contract negotiations with Swayman.
“Something is being done. There’s no doubt about it,” Neely said during an Aug. 22 radio appearance on WZLX. The Rich Shertenlieb Show“Not every negotiation goes as smoothly as one would like. I know our fans would certainly welcome something to happen now. But I am absolutely confident that both sides will come to an agreement here in the not too distant future.”
Swayman is a really good goalie. He played pretty well in the 2023-24 regular season and then took his performance to an even higher level in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He was the best goalie in the first two rounds and the clear MVP of Boston’s first-round series win over the Toronto Maple Leafs.
So what would be a fair deal for Swayman? Well, there are a few factors to consider.
First, he’s a top-10 goalie and deserves to be paid accordingly. In fact, the NHL Network released its annual rankings of top-10 goalies earlier this month and Swayman was No. 4. Even if you disagree with No. 4, he’s clearly still in the top 10.
Here’s a look at Swayman’s rankings of key goaltending statistics over the past three seasons. Keep in mind that Swayman is only 25 years old and one could argue that his best years are still ahead of him.
Signing a contract that eats up unrestricted free agency years can be expensive. If Swayman were to sign an eight-year deal – the maximum length a player can have with his own team – that contract would take him through the 2031-32 season. He would be 33 when the deal expires. The salary cap is also expected to rise significantly in the coming years. It is set at $88 million for next season and is expected to top $90 million in the near future.
The increase in the cap was actually addressed by Swayman when he appeared in a recent episode of Shut Up Marc Podcast about his ongoing contract negotiations.
The Bruins have had some really strong performances over the last 17 years, including 15 playoff runs, three Stanley Cup Final appearances, and the franchise’s only championship (2011) since 1972. A big factor in that success has been goaltending. The B’s have been privileged to play a top-10 goalie for almost the entire season, including players like Tim Thomas, Tuukka Rask, Linus Ullmark, and now Swayman.
Paying a goalie a lot of money is not a big obstacle to winning the Stanley Cup.
Sure, a couple of recent Stanley Cup winners — the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights, for example — have won without having an elite goalie. However, the Tampa Bay Lightning have won a Stanley Cup and reached another Cup Final while paying Andrei Vasilevskiy $9.5 million per year. Sergei Bobrovsky is the second-highest paid goalie on an annual basis ($10 million) and has led the Florida Panthers to two consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances, including a title last season.
So what amount would be fair for Swayman? Anything between $6.75 million and $8.5 million per season would be a good deal for both sides. A deal in that range would put him in the top 10 highest-paid goalies. It’s also important to remember that the Bruins currently have about $8.64 million in salary cap space, according to PuckPedia.
According to PuckPedia, five goalies will have a salary cap hit above $6.4 million next season. Swayman deserves to be included in that category based on his age, past performance, and expectations for how well he will play in the future. But he would also be the least successful goalie in that group (with the possible exception of Ilya Sorokin).
All five goalies at this level have won a Vezina, except Sorokin, but the Islanders goalie finished second in 2023 and sixth in 2022. Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy (two) have won the Stanley Cup. Price has led his team to a Cup final and won Olympic gold with Canada in 2014.
Swayman simply doesn’t have the resume of the five players mentioned above (again, with the possible exception of Sorokin). It’s not all his fault, of course. He’s only been in the league since 2020-21, and until the 2024 playoffs, he was never the clear No. 1 goalie in Boston.
Whichever way you look at it, Swayman deserves a significant raise, and it would be to the Bruins’ advantage to give him a seven- or eight-year contract. He’s a great player. He’s taken the city and its fans to heart. He has the right temperament. He’s exactly what you want in a starting goalie.
Swayman is talented enough to be a cornerstone of the Boston franchise for a long time, but both sides must agree to a contract for that to happen. Training camp is scheduled to begin on September 18.
